Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
